All models updated ~2 weeks after each month end. Become a member for weekly model updates, and more.
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Welcome to CMV

Current Market Valuation tracks various economic models highlighting the current state of the US stock market and broader economy. This data is an educational resource to better understand market and business cycles. While these cycles often correlate well with stock performance, the analysis should not be used as a short term trading strategy. If you're looking for investment advice, you can find our perspective here.

Each of our models uses historical data to determine a baseline, and expresses current values in terms of the current data's number of standard deviations above or below that baseline trend. More information on model ratings is available here.

CMV is supported by members, who enjoy more frequent model updates and other additional content.



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Aggregate Market Value Index

Available only to members, this is our aggregate score of the current valuation of the US stock market.

See how the index correlates against future stock market returns.

Market Valuation Models





Recession Indicator Models




Market Sentiment Models