Current Market Valuation: Overvalued

We believe in fundamental valuation analysis as the basis of any investment, and made CMV as a resource to quickly and easily track long-term indicators of market valuation. These are presented with background and analysis to be accessible and educational for retail investors.

October 22, 2021: Our models average 1.7 standard deviations above trend, indicating S&P500 is Overvalued.

Core Valuation Models

We currently track five different models to evaluate whether the US stock market is accurately priced, relative to long-term historical patterns and fundamental indicators. Each model is illustrated below, with much more detail available by clicking into each. Models are updated weekly, or as data becomes available.


Yield Curve Model: Fairly Valued

Summary

If the spread between the 10-year and 3-month Treasury yield is negative (when 3mo yield is higher than 10y), it is a bearish signal that is almost always followed by economic recession.

Last UpdatedSeptember 30, 2021
10-Year Yield1.52%
3-Month Yield0.04%
Spread1.48%
Std Dev above trend0.02
RatingFairly Valued
Rating Last ChangedMarch 2020
About Our Ratings

Buffett Indicator Model: Strongly Overvalued

Summary

The ratio of the total value of the US stock market vs current GDP. Originally a favorite valuation indicator of Warren Buffett.

Last UpdatedOctober 21, 2021
US Market Value$49.7T
US GDP$22.8T
Buffett Indicator218%
Historical Ave BI121%
Std Dev above trend2.5
RatingStrongly Overvalued
Rating Last ChangedApril 2021
About Our Ratings

P/E Ratio Model: Strongly Overvalued

Summary

This model tracks the aggregate price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P500, compared to its own historical trend.

Last UpdatedOctober 22, 2021
P/E (CAPE) Ratio38.3
Historical Ave PE19.8
% above trend94%
Std Dev above trend2.4
RatingStrongly Overvalued
Rating Last ChangedMarch 2021
About Our Ratings

S&P500 Mean Reversion Model: Strongly Overvalued

Summary

This model simply assumes that over time the S&P500 will tend to revert back to its own long term trend line.

Last UpdatedOctober 22, 2021
S&P500 Price$4,545
S&P500 Trend Price$2,300
% above trend89%
Std Dev above trend2.5
RatingStrongly Overvalued
Rating Last ChangedApril 2021
About Our Ratings

Interest Rate Model: Overvalued

Summary

For several reasons, low interest rates tend to push stock prices higher. This model considers current US stock market prices relative to US Treasury interest rates.

Last UpdatedOctober 22, 2021
S&P500 Price$4,545
S&P500 SDs above trend2.5
10Y Yield1.68%
10Y SDs below trend1.4
RatingOvervalued
Rating Last ChangedOctober 2021
About Our Ratings

Posts

Shorter form blog-style posts on various stock/economy related topics, but not limited to market valuation. These are generally not updated after they are posted.


S&P500 Mean Reversion Chart

July 2021

Fed Balance Sheet vs. S&P500

A look at the recent expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet, and its correlation with recent stock performance.


Junk Bond Yields

March 2021

Junk Bond Yields

Junk bond yields are currently at historic lows.


Federal Student Loans Outstanding Chart

September 2020

Federal Student Loan Crisis

Data exploring the exponential growth of unbankruptable federal student debt in the last twenty years.