Summary: The Buffett Indicator is the ratio of the total value of the US stock market versus the most current measure of total GDP. When this value is very high it suggests the stock market is overpriced relative to actual economic productivity.

Summary: The PE Ratio Model tracks the ratio of the total price of the US stock market versus the total average earnings of the market over the prior 10 years (aka the Cyclicly Adjusted PE or CAPE).

Summary: Low interest rates should generally drive higher equity prices. This model examines the relative S&P500 position given the relative level of interest rates.

Summary: An extremely straightforward model stipulating that at some point, eventually, the S&P500 will tend to return towards its historic trend line.

Summary: When short term (3-month) Treasury yields are higher than long term (10-year) yields, it is a bearish signal that is almost always followed by economic recession.

Summary: A State Coincidence Index (SCI) is an aggregate measure of individual state economic health. This model charts the number of states with month-over-month declines in their SCI. On average, if more than 25 states are in decline, the US overall is entering a recession.

Summary: Margin debt is money investors borrow to invest in stocks. High margin debt indicates bullish investors, and tends to lead stock market corrections, particularly after margin rates begin falling from their peak. This model looks at changes in margin as a percent of total stock market value.

Summary: High junk bond spreads indicate bearish sentiment as investors require very high compensation for taking on additional credit risk. Low junk bond spreads indicate bullish investors are eager to take on risk, even for relatively low return, compared to safer investments.