As a result of the market crash in Feb/Mar 2020 and the subsequent rally back near market highs, we consider the current market Strongly Overvalued. The Yield Curve still suggests, and data has made very clear, that we are speeding toward a massive recession, and valuation models show that we are far above a sustainable value, when looking at relative historical performance.
While we hope that these models will be useful in putting this current market cycle into historical perspective, we do not make a claim that these will predict the market top or bottom. A global pandemic of this scale, combined with the economic depression that could follow, are unprecedented and markets may deviate materially from these historical trends.
Updated June 30, 2020 » The spread between 10-Year and 3-Month US Government debt was recently negative, illustrating an inverted yield curve. Historically, this has been a very reliable indicator of a recession in the following ~12-24 months after inversion. The last time this happened was 2006, right before the financial crisis. Before that: 2000, before the .com bust. In the last 50 years this indicator hasn't been wrong.More Info: Yield Curve »
Updated July 9, 2020 » The Buffett Indicator (named after Warren Buffett, who claims this as a favorite macroeconomic indicator) is the ratio of total US stock market valuation to GDP. This is currently 62% higher than its historical average, indicating the market is currently Strongly Overvalued.More Info: Buffett Indicator »
Updated July 10, 2020 » The P/E ratio is a fundamental measure of any security's valuation, indicating how many years of current profits it takes to recoup an investment. The aggregate S&P500 P/E (CAPE) ratio is 29.7, which is 51% above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the current P/E over 1 standard deviation above the average. This indicates that the market is Overvalued.More Info: Price/Earnings »
Updated July 10, 2020 » The S&P500 is currently trading 41% above its modern-era historical trendline, indicating that the market is Overvalued.More Info: S&P Mean Regression »